![]() In other economic data, industrial production fell 0.6% in October, while builder confidence fell for a fourth straight month in November as mortgage rates reached 8%. ![]() Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a negative 7.5 reading in November. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions. The Philadelphia Fed said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity improved slightly to negative 5.9 in November from negative 9 in the prior month. The Labor Department said the number of Americans who applied for first-time unemployment benefits last week jumped to a three-month high of 231,000, suggesting some softening around the edges of a strong U.S. The chances of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May meeting were pegged near 33%, up from 30% a month ago. See: Stock and bond investors are convinced the Fed is finished with rate hikes. Traders were pricing in at least a 97% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its next meeting on December 13th, and the subsequent meeting on Jan. Lisa Cook on Thursday said she thinks a “soft landing” for the economy was possible, but not guaranteed, in a speech at the San Francisco regional bank.Ĭleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that easing monetary policy was not “ part of the conversation right now,” in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “I think maybe there is a sense that an inventory glut could happen, although I’m not totally convinced of that,” Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial, said in a phone call.Ĭompernolle also sees signs that deteriorating growth sentiment is driving down yields further out on the Treasury market curve.įed Gov. Particularly after chief executive Doug McMillion said he expects to see deflation in the coming months, during the company’s third-quarter earnings results early Thursday. economic activity and on quarterly results from mega retailers, including from Walmart Inc., Traders on Thursday focused on further signs of cooling U.S. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions. ![]() Investors have piled into bonds in recent weeks amid hopes that easing inflation and a cooling economy will allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by the middle of next year. The 10-year yield is down 54 basis points from the October peak and the 30-year is 47 basis points lower, according to Dow Jones Market Data.īenchmark Treasury yields fell sharply Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield down more than 50 basis points from its 16-year peak of 5% in October. ![]() Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. Pricing in fed-fund futures markets, which reflects market expectations for coming rates, show expectations for a half-a-percentage-point worth of cuts in 2020.Fell 7.4 basis points to 4.84%. The slide in long-term bond yields also reflects the surge in betting on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy this year. The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday the coronavirus would trim 0.1% off global growth, and lower China’s economic growth rate to 5.6% this year. There are now 79,339 cases of COVID-19-the infectious disease derived from the novel strain of coronavirus that reportedly originated in Wuhan, China last year- in 30 countries and 2,619 deaths, according to the latest figures from the World Health Organization.Įxpectations for disruptions in global supply chains run high as transportation links in Asia are shut down and factory production lines struggle to return to full-capacity. The spread to Italy and South Korea, two major developed economies, have added to overseas growth concerns. This comes as the rapidly rising number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy, Iran and South Korea have raised fears that the virus epidemic could turn into a global pandemic. The S&P 500įell around 3% on Monday, marking their biggest one-day selloff since Dec. stocks, along with European and Asian equities, unraveled to kick off the week’s trading, driving investors to the perceived safety of bonds. See: The 10-year Treasury yield is sliding toward its all-time low - here’s why What’s driving Treasurys? Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields. If the benchmark 10-year rate falls a few more basis points, it will surpass the previous all-time closing low of 1.32% set on June 2016.
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